Solar payback rankings confuse people because they confuse two different leaderboards: where the sun shines and where the math works. The sun map is geography. The ROI map is geography multiplied by electricity prices multiplied by the tariff your utility pays for exports. Here’s the honest table for 2026 — with the federal 30% credit gone (it ended December 31, 2025), the second-order factors now matter more than ever.

The three inputs that decide payback

simple payback (yrs) = installed $/W × 1000 ÷ (PSH × 314 × effective rate)

where 314 ≈ 365 days × 0.86 performance factor. All three terms move the result as much as the sun does:

• Effective rate isn’t the advertised tariff — it’s (bill total − fixed fees) ÷ kWh, times whatever fraction of your production actually offsets retail. Under 1:1 net metering it’s the retail rate; under California-style avoided-cost exports it’s a harsh blend.
• Incentives — state credits, rebates, SREC production income — act like a lower net cost or a higher effective rate. They’re why New Jersey out-ranks New Mexico despite losing a third of the sun.
• Net cost — $2.5–3.5/W installed is the current US residential band; quote variance inside one state easily swings ±1.5 years of payback.

The 2026 table — no federal credit, $2.80/W, 14% losses

Ranges assume ideal orientation, full retail offset unless noted, and typical effective rates — your address will differ, this is the starting point, not the answer:

State	≈ PSH	≈ Effective rate	≈ Payback	What drives it
Hawaii	5.6	~$0.40	4–6 yrs	the rate, not just the sun
Massachusetts	4.2	~$0.28	7–9 yrs	high rate + SMART/SREC-era incentives
New Jersey	4.4	~$0.25	7–9 yrs	rate + SREC income on top
California	5.9	~$0.30 retail	8–11 yrs	NEM 3.0 exports pay avoided cost — batteries change the case
New York	4.1	~$0.24	8–10 yrs	rate + state credit (25% to $5k)
Arizona	6.4	~$0.15	9–11 yrs	best sun meets cheap power
Nevada	6.2	~$0.15	9–12 yrs	strong sun; export rates below retail
Colorado	5.6	~$0.16	9–11 yrs	balanced, no surprises
New Mexico	6.3	~$0.15	9–11 yrs	sun-rich, rate-thin
Texas	5.6	~$0.15	10–12 yrs	production is fine; tariff varies by retail provider
Florida	5.4	~$0.16	10–12 yrs	good sun, modest rates, real net metering
Illinois	4.4	~$0.18	10–13 yrs	adjustable-block/SREC-style program helps
Georgia	5.0	~$0.15	11–13 yrs	decent sun, soft rates
Ohio	4.2	~$0.16	12–15 yrs	middling everything
Washington	3.9	~$0.12	16–20 yrs	cheap hydro + cloudy west side

How to read this honestly

The outlier that proves the rule is Hawaii: middling sun by desert standards, but ~$0.40 electricity makes every kWh worth three times what Arizona pays. Rankings follow the product, not any single factor.

California needs an asterisk, not a number. NEM 3.0 exports earn avoided-cost rates (~$0.04–0.08 effective most hours), so “self-consume everything you make” is the strategy: sized-to-usage systems with a battery can still land under ~10 years; oversized export-heavy systems can’t. Model your offset % honestly in the calculator — that one slider is the whole NEM 3.0 story.

SREC states still print money in the background. NJ/MA/DC/MD-area markets pay per ~MWh generated on top of bill savings — anywhere from tens to a few hundred dollars per certificate depending on the market. A 7 kW system making ~8 MWh/yr can add several hundred dollars a year of production income, quietly pulling paybacks toward the front of the table.

Cheap power is the hard wall. Washington’s hydro rates (~$0.12) mean a kWh you make saves a small coin — the same array that pays back in ~8 years in San Jose takes 17+ in Seattle. That doesn’t make it irrational (resilience, carbon, EV-load planning are real reasons), it makes it a different decision — buy it for the values, not the IRR.

The catch that’s free money if you catch it

Two adjustments the table can’t see: your real effective rate (pull the last 12 bills and divide) and your tariff’s export rule (net metering at retail vs avoided-cost — worth more than a full PSH of sun in either direction). Put both in the calculator above and the state-average range collapses to your number — which is the only one you should ever make a $20,000 decision on.

Frequently asked questions

Which state has the fastest solar payback?

Hawaii, and it's not close — the highest retail rates in the country (~$0.40+/kWh) meet ~5.6 PSH for paybacks around 4–6 years even without any credit. Among mainland states, Massachusetts and New Jersey lead: middling sun but top-tier electricity prices plus SREC income, landing typical paybacks in the 6–9 year band.

Why isn't Arizona #1 if it has the most sun?

Because payback divides by your electricity price, and Arizona's ~$0.15/kWh is cheap power. Arizona systems pay back fine (~9–11 years) — just not faster than cloudy-but-expensive Massachusetts (~7–9). The best ROI lives where sun and price are both decent, not where either one is extreme.

Is solar worth it in cheap-electricity states?

The honest answer is slower, not never. Washington's ~$0.12/kWh hydro power stretches payback toward 16–20 years — inside a 25-year panel life but not a financial slam-dunk; people there go solar for resilience and values as much as ROI. Compare that to Texas (~$0.15, strong sun): ~10–12 years, driven by production more than price.

How did losing the federal credit change paybacks?

The §25D credit ended for installs completed after Dec 31, 2025 — removing a flat 30% discount adds roughly 40% to net cost, i.e., a 9-year payback becomes ~12.5 years all else equal. It compressed the whole table upward; the rank order of states barely moved, because sun, rates and tariffs didn't change. The dated details are in the tax credit status article.

My state isn't listed — how do I estimate mine?

One line of math: payback ≈ 2,800 ÷ (PSH × 314 × effective $/kWh) at $2.80/W, 14% losses, full retail offset, no credit. Grab your state's PSH from the calculator's preset list, your real effective rate (bill total ÷ kWh), adjust the offset for your export tariff, and you have a first-pass answer before calling anyone.